North Carolina origination trends 2018–2025 from HMDA public data: volume, denial rates, and purchase vs refinance mix. Free and open — no account required.
Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, 30-year and 15-year fixed
DENIAL RATE BY DEMOGRAPHIC · HMDA PUBLIC DATA
North Carolina denial rates by race, ethnicity, sex & age
How to read this. Raw, unadjusted HMDA denial rates (conditional on a terminal decision — denied ÷ (denied + originated)). NOT controlled for loan purpose, amount, geography, or credit — these show disparities, not proven discrimination.
Which denominator. These rates use hmda.denial_rate.orig_basis — denied ÷ (denied + originated), 25.374% nationally in 2024. Two other conventions exist in this product and are NOT interchangeable with it: hmda.denial_rate.action3 (denied ÷ actions 1–5, 19.526%), which is what the market tiles show, and hmda.denial_rate.decisioned (denied ÷ actions 1–3 over closed-end consumer loans only, 21.286%), which the fair-lending screen uses because it is the one that isolates the credit decision. A gap between two “denial rates” on two pages is usually this, not an error.
Unadjusted, and it matters. A raw gap here pools purchase with cash-out, first lien with subordinate, site-built with manufactured — and product mix alone can manufacture most of a gap or hide one entirely. One 2024 lender's raw gap for Black applicants is +47.9pp and +1.3pp once the comparison is like-for-like; another looks 12.8pp better than market raw and is 3.1pp adverse adjusted. The mix-adjusted screen does that comparison per lender.
DIMENSION
White denial rate over time
North Carolina conditional denial rate vs all applicants · 2018–2025
% · GROUP VS ALL
Subject: White conditional denial rate (denied of terminal decisions). Benchmark: all applicants in North Carolina, same denominator. Raw and unadjusted — a gap reflects many factors (application mix, credit, geography), not discrimination by itself.
Group detail · 2025
Latest year · sort any column · click a row to chart that group
295,491182,20746,53220.3%White denial rate228,739 terminal decisions (denied + originated)−3.5 ppVersus all applicantsGap from the all-applicant denial rate this year, in percentage points
86,19643,75816,06126.8%Race Not Available denial rate59,819 terminal decisions (denied + originated)+3.0 ppVersus all applicantsGap from the all-applicant denial rate this year, in percentage points
66,78730,52918,75838.1%Black or African American denial rate49,287 terminal decisions (denied + originated)+14.3 ppVersus all applicantsGap from the all-applicant denial rate this year, in percentage points
25,08016,0693,20616.6%Asian denial rate19,275 terminal decisions (denied + originated)−7.2 ppVersus all applicantsGap from the all-applicant denial rate this year, in percentage points
9,3035,7951,37119.1%Joint denial rate7,166 terminal decisions (denied + originated)−4.7 ppVersus all applicantsGap from the all-applicant denial rate this year, in percentage points
4,1761,7031,21141.6%American Indian or Alaska Native denial rate2,914 terminal decisions (denied + originated)+17.8 ppVersus all applicantsGap from the all-applicant denial rate this year, in percentage points
Denial rate = denied ÷ (denied + originated) — the FFIEC-style share of applications reaching a terminal lender decision that were denied (excludes withdrawn, approved-not-accepted, incomplete, and preapproval-only outcomes). “VS ALL” is the gap from the all-applicant rate this year. Groups with too few terminal decisions to report a stable rate are shown as “—”.
ORIGINATED MIX · PURPOSE x TYPE · HMDA PUBLIC DATA
North Carolina 2025 originations by purpose and loan type
Originated only. Every cell counts loans MADE (HMDA action taken = 1). Applications, approvals the borrower did not accept, withdrawals and denials are all excluded, so this is a mix of lending, not of demand. Purpose classes partition the universe: refinance total = rate/term + cash-out, which is stated rather than stored as a column — the same discipline that ended the `refinance_count` collision between two surfaces.
Attribution & methodology. Benchmarks are computed by MortRadar from Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) public data files published by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) and the Federal Financial Institutions Examination Council (FFIEC), covering activity years 2018–2025. Originations = loans originated (action taken 1); denial rate = denials / actioned applications (CFPB Data Browser convention); loan amounts are the public files' midpoint-rounded values. MortRadar's aggregations are derived works and are not published, reviewed, or endorsed by the CFPB, FFIEC, or any government agency. See data attribution and the disclaimer.
North Carolina · All lenders · 1-4 family · First lien · any purpose
Originations whose derived dwelling category is Single Family (1-4 Units) — site-built or manufactured. Secured by a first lien on the property.
Denial rate · 2025
14.9%
2024: 15.5%
Denial rateApplications denied (action taken = 3) divided by applications acted upon (actions 1-5).55,487 of 371,841 actioned applications
Originations · 2025
220,461
OriginationsCount of HMDA records with action taken = 1 (loan originated) in the activity year.374,924 applications
Average loan amount · 2025
$337K
Average loan amountOrigination volume divided by origination count for the lender-year.
2025374,924220,46155,94114.9%$74.3B6.43%
2024331,531196,56151,61315.5%$63.5B6.68%
2023314,165
Source: HMDA public loan-application data (CFPB/FFIEC). Denial rate = action taken 3 ÷ actions 1–5, the CFPB Data Browser convention; the DENIED column counts actions 3 and 7, which is why it is larger than the rate's numerator. Bank / non-bank is resolved by LEI against the institution spine — filers we could not match are their own bucket, never folded into either side. “Not reported” buckets hold records whose filer claimed a partial exemption; they are never merged into a reported bucket.
516 weekly observations · latest 6.58% for the week of 07/23/26 · +3.14pp over the window
BASIS: APPLICATION WEEK. Since 2022-11-17 Freddie Mac builds PMMS from mortgage APPLICATION data (ICE / Optimal Blue) rather than a lender survey, and points and fees were dropped from the published rate — so levels either side of that week are not perfectly continuous. This is a rate on applications, not on closed loans; the closing-basis series are below. Source: Freddie Mac PMMS via FRED (MORTGAGE30US, MORTGAGE15US).