RATE LOCK-IN & REFI CANDIDATES
The Outstanding Book, Priced Against Today
OREvery figure below is Oregon only.← BACK TO THE UNITED STATES
FHFA National Mortgage Database, outstanding closed-end first-lien 1-4 family mortgages in Oregon · 2026Q1 · against Freddie Mac PMMS 30-year fixed at 6.58% (2026-07-23).
Outstanding book below today's rate · 2026Q1
82.0%
76.4% of balances
Refi-candidate ceiling · 2026Q1
18.0%
ceiling, not a count
Average outstanding note rate · 2026Q1
4.20%
2.38pp below market
+0.00pp QoQ · gap narrowing vs 2025Q4
Outstanding mortgages · 2026Q1
703,000
FHFA NMDB sample estimate
Outstanding rate distribution · 2026Q1
Share of outstanding mortgages by note-rate bin
Note rate on originations — 6–7% and 7%+ split out
Loading the HMDA loan-level cut…
Most locked-in states · 2026Q1
Click any state to drill · Oregon is the view you are in · share of each state's outstanding mortgages in rate bins that end below 6.58%
WHAT THIS PAGE WILL NOT TELL YOU
It will not give you a refi-candidate count. FHFA publishes five rate bins and nothing finer, and today's 6.58% falls inside the 6% and above bin — which also holds every borrower between 6.00% and 6.58% who is still below market. Splitting that bin would require a within-bin rate distribution nobody publishes, so the honest object is an interval: at least 82.0% of the book is locked below market, and at most 18.0% could be in the money. A midpoint of those two would be a number, not a measurement.
NMDB is a ~5% nationally representative sample of closed-end first-lien 1-4 family mortgages, not a census. VALUE1 is count-weighted (each sampled mortgage represents 20 actual mortgages); VALUE2 is the same statistic weighted by mortgage amount. Cells FHFA suppressed for disclosure control arrive suppressed=true with NULL values.
FREESource: FHFA National Mortgage Database (public) · data through 2026-01-01 · Freddie Mac PMMS via FRED. Data attribution.