MORTRADAR DEFAULT RISK INDEX · GINNIE MAE DISCLOSURE
MortRadar Default Risk Index
A single, transparent gauge of realized default risk in the U.S. government-guaranteed mortgage market (Ginnie Mae single-family MBS): a base-100 composite of the serious-delinquency rate, the default speed (CDR), and the buyout speed (CBR). It is a descriptive index of observed performance — not a forward-looking default forecast. Free — no account required.
Default Risk Index · May 2026
295.3
+195.3% vs base (Jun 2023)
Default Risk Index change (MoM)
−61.8 pts
risk easing
Serious delinquency · May 2026
3.95%
90+ days past due / active loans
Share of active Ginnie Mae loans 90 or more days delinquentDefault speed (CDR) · May 2026
1.39%
buyout (CBR) 0.44%
Annualised rate at which balances leave pools via default (CDR) and servicer buyout (CBR)DEFAULT RISK SIGNAL
The MortRadar Default Risk Index reads 295.3 as of May 2026 — +195.3% above its Jun 2023 base of 100. Serious delinquency is 3.95% of active loans, with a 1.39% annualised default speed.
Default Risk Index — composite (base 100)
Equal-weighted blend of serious delinquency, default speed, and buyout speed · base Jun 2023
Serious delinquency rate
90+ days past due, share of active Ginnie Mae loans
Default speed vs buyout speed
Annualised CDR (default) vs CBR (servicer buyout)
Delinquency ladder · May 2026
Across 12,228,063 active Ginnie Mae loans
30–59 days
3.85%
early stage
60–89 days
1.20%
mid stage
90+ days
3.95%
serious delinquency
How the index is built
Transparent by design
The MortRadar Default Risk Index (MDRI) is a base-100 composite of three realized, disclosed risk signals for the Ginnie Mae single-family universe, each divided by its value in the base month and equally weighted:
- Serious delinquency rate — loans 90+ days past due as a share of active loans.
- Default speed (CDR) — the annualised rate at which balances leave pools via default / involuntary termination.
- Buyout speed (CBR) — the annualised rate at which delinquent loans are bought out of pools by servicers.
MDRI = 100 × mean( signal / signal_base ). A reading of 120 means the blended default-risk signal is 20% above the base month.
MDRI is descriptive, not predictive: it measures what has already happened in the disclosure data. It is not a borrower-level credit model, not a forward default forecast, and not affiliated with any third-party default index.
Attribution & methodology. The MortRadar Default Risk Index is computed by MortRadar from Ginnie Mae public single-family MBS disclosure data (issuer monthly delinquency and pool/loan performance). CDR and CBR are single-month annualised speeds (1−(1−SMM)¹²); the serious-delinquency rate is 90+ dpd loans over active loans. The composite equally weights each signal relative to its base month; any signal that is not computable is dropped from that month’s blend rather than shown as zero. MDRI is a descriptive index of realized performance and is not a forward-looking forecast. Derived work; not published, reviewed, or endorsed by Ginnie Mae or any government agency, and not affiliated with any third-party default index. See data attribution.