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MortRadarTERMINAL
Markets/Surveillance

U.S. MORTGAGE MARKET SURVEILLANCE · PUBLIC DISCLOSURE DATA

Market surveillance

One screen for the health of the U.S. mortgage market: national prepayment, default, buyout, and delinquency across the government-guaranteed universe (Ginnie Mae), plus the largest state origination markets from HMDA. Built entirely on public disclosure data. Free — no account required.

Default Risk Index · May 2026

295.3

+195.3% vs base

Default Risk IndexBase-100 composite of REALIZED Ginnie Mae default risk: the mean of three ratios — serious delinquency, CDR and CBR, each against its own base-month value — multiplied by 100.Base 100 = Jun 2023How this is calculated: /markets/risk-index

CPR · national · May 2026

9.7%

voluntary prepay
CPRConditional prepayment rate: 1 - (1 - SMM)^12, where SMM = total removals / (beginning UPB - scheduled principal).Ginnie Mae single-family universe

90+ delinquency · May 2026

3.95%

90+ dpd / active
90+ delinquencyLoans 90 or more days past due divided by active loans.Ginnie Mae single-family universe

Origination volume · 2025

$2.41T

HMDA · nationwide
Origination volumeSum of loan amount over HMDA records with action taken = 1.6,827,891 loans across 4,782 reporters
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MARKET SIGNAL

The MortRadar Default Risk Index reads 295.3 as of May 2026 (+195.3% vs its base), with national voluntary prepayment at 9.7% CPR and serious delinquency at 3.95% of active loans.

Government-market performanceGINNIE MAE · MONTHLY

Prepayment speed (CPR)

Voluntary prepay of the Ginnie Mae single-family universe

0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%Jun'23Sep'23Dec'23Mar'24Jun'24Sep'24Dec'24Mar'25Jun'25Sep'25Dec'25Mar'26May'269.7%

Serious delinquency

90+ days past due, share of active loans

0.00%2.00%4.00%6.00%8.00%Dec'13Sep'15Jun'17Mar'19Dec'20Sep'22Sep'23Apr'24Nov'24Jun'25Jan'26May'263.95%

Default speed (CDR)

1.39%

May 2026

Annualised rate at which balances leave pools via default / involuntary termination

Buyout speed (CBR)

0.44%

May 2026

Annualised rate at which delinquent loans are bought out of pools by servicers

30–59 dpd

3.85%

early-stage delinquency

Active loans

12,228,063

Ginnie Mae single-family

Origination marketHMDA · 2025

Largest state markets · 2025

Ranked by origination volume · open a state for its full profile

1CaliforniaCaliforniaOpen the California market profile$344.74B572,26817.4%
2TexasTexasOpen the Texas market profile$186.23B526,68919.4%
3FloridaFloridaOpen the Florida market profile$183.52B491,04621.1%
4New YorkNew YorkOpen the New York market profile$116.18B232,23919.8%
5North CarolinaNorth CarolinaOpen the North Carolina market profile$89.58B281,15918.1%
6WashingtonWashingtonOpen the Washington market profile$81.03B175,44115.7%
7GeorgiaGeorgiaOpen the Georgia market profile$79.74B242,93119.2%
8VirginiaVirginiaOpen the Virginia market profile$77.59B203,05415.9%
9New JerseyNew JerseyOpen the New Jersey market profile$75.63B178,22017.7%
10IllinoisIllinoisOpen the Illinois market profile$69.98B232,59117.1%
Default Risk Index →The base-100 composite of realized government-market default riskFlash CPR report →Latest national prepayment speeds by coupon and loan programState market profiles →Volume, top lenders, and denial rates for every U.S. state

Attribution. Government-market figures (CPR, CDR, CBR, delinquency) are computed by MortRadar from Ginnie Mae public single-family MBS disclosure data; origination-market figures are computed from Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) public data published by the CFPB and FFIEC, activity year 2025. Speeds are single-month annualised approximations, shown as an em dash where not computable — never a fabricated zero. Derived works; not published, reviewed, or endorsed by Ginnie Mae, the CFPB, the FFIEC, or any government agency. See data attribution.